tv Markets Now FOX Business February 6, 2013 1:00pm-3:00pm EST
think. cheryl: we have the post master general on. saturday delivery has got to go. it is all junk mail. you look, the volume is down. i know that melissa francis and lori rothman will pick up on that. melissa: we are. people getting hammered is a sign that the economy is getting better. lori: tobacco and alcohol gambling. those companies tend to do well when the country stinks. i am lori rothman. melissa: i am melissa francis. nothing can stop the post office from safi. only the weekend. lori: our money is under attack. the latest target in a string of the latest target attacks.
melissa: jcpenney is one year into its major overhaul. we'll ask an analyst at this revamp is working. now it is time for stocks. nicole petallides standing by. we are struggling for games today. down five points. nicole: we have had three days in a row, basically, with triple digit moves. we have also had 14,000. we have not seen those level since 2007. here we are today right now about five points down on the dow jones industrial average at 13,974. something that i although noticed was the drug index. it has been a part of this move that we have been seeing.
names like merck and united healthcare have been weighing on the dow. the bank index is the one area where we are still seeing some strength. i want to take a look at the movers here. both marathon and time warner. those are these names that are coming out with their earnings for the quarter. time warner grew about 51%. back to you. melissa: thank you so much. lori: the latest report from the national small business association finding small business owners are losing confidence and fast. 86% anticipating a recessionary economy this year. only 38% anticipating that their firms will grow. that is a drop of laster survey. how can we help america's job creators? my next guest is working on just
that. congressman, welcome to you. you are the top republican in congress fighting for small business. you are getting small business a voice. we know from the latest report that small business owners have even more worries than they did last year. what are their chief complaints? >> it is very consistent with what you are hearing with the surveys. there is concern about the economy overall and taxes. they are also concerned about the regulatory environment out there and how healthcare will affect them. the debt ceiling continues to go up and the overall debt. they are very concerned about all of those things. lori: do you think washington has the best interests of small business at heart? >> well, i hope so. the unfortunate part is we are seeing it in the administration.
it continues to attack small business. washington has a spending problem, not a revenue problem. we hear about this every single week. lori: you point out that many small businesses do not have lawyers or lobbyists that focus on this. the list goes on and on. that is a serious problem. a serious disadvantage for them, correct? >> exactly. they do not have the resources. that is one of the reasons why we are trying to provide the voice for small businesses. we need to be the advocate for small businesses here in washington. lori: you look at our ballooning national debt in the battle over the current deficit. what is the best outcome? >> that would be for the federal government to reduce spending. that is just all there is to it. lori: where exactly? i have to interrupt you, we are
not getting enough detail as to where those tough cuts should come. >> i think they should come from everything. we definitely have to have some entitlement reform. you are seeing an explosion in expenditures in all areas of government. it will have to be trimmed back. one of the things we will be doing is finding those areas in our respective jurisdictions. lori: how do you think about the meat cleaver, if you will, regarding the cuts? >> well, it will happen unless the president wants to come to talk to us about meaningful cuts. the house has passed two bills now. this president is basically says no and does not want to talk to us. he needs to come talk to us. otherwise, it will happen and it will be very tough on a lot of different areas. lori: one silver lining in this national small business association, or economic report
inspired our conversation this morning. 73% of small business reporting the ability to garner financing. is that enough to rehabilitate to your satisfaction in this industry? >> what we are seeing is a lot of small businesses are not expanding because of their concerns about the economy. it is very good news. when it comes to access to capital. a majority of those businesses will just wait and see what happens. they do not want to put their necks out on the line and get burned by this economy. lori: a pleasure speaking with you this afternoon, congressman. melissa: some big changes coming to your mailbox. saturday mail delivery will and and in all this. packages will continue to be delivered on saturdays. post offices that are already open on saturdays will continue to be open.
they hope this will save $2 billion a year. >> some of them are willing to tolerate the changes in the interest of trying to save the postal service. others absolutely depend on the postal service delivery on saturday for their business plans and business survival. melissa: what will they do? >> well, if the postal service does in fact, is an loud impact to cancel saturday deliveries, what they are telling us is a fair number of, say small newspapers, will go out of business.
some will find their own way of delivery. some of them depend on remittance processing through the weekend. lori: what you think the answer is here? the post office is losing money every single day. their losses for last year were triple what the losses were four the year before. maybe they just really need to raise prices. your members send stuff out at the snail mail rate. maybe that is just too cheap. >> what will happen then, melissa, because the entire system now is fully competitive, including first-class, you will drive a huge amount of additional business. melissa: maybe that is what needs to happen. the way they are doing it is not economical. they cannot go on no matter how
they slice it. what is the other solution? >> the underlying reason here is a combination of the cultural shift from paper to electronic communications combined with the leftover impact of the recession. mailers are already taking away a lot of health of the system. you have to retain that business. in fact, the first-class mail -- [talking over each other] melissa: what is the solution to the money problem? >> the big thing that has to happen here is congress has to act. both houses had a lot of progress made last year. melissa: what would you like to see them do? what could they do to make this more profitable? it seems like a post office problem. >> well, first of all, they, the postal service, are saddled with
these payments at $5.5 billion a year. that is a big part of what their loss is. if congress can find a way -- melissa: that is not common sense. that is people asking them to not fund a promise that they have funded. maybe you have to cut the benefits down the road and say maybe we are not going to give you what we said we were going to. not funding the promises you already made is not an answer. it just pushes the crosses off to another time. >> that is a separate question. what we're talking about re- advertising that payment. we are not talking about cutting it off. we are saying pay it in 40 years instead of ten. if you pay it over 40, like a mortgage, you will ultimately fully fund whatever liability is there and the taxpayers --
nobody is saying do not pay it at all. melissa: they are saying funded at 80% instead of 100%. if you stretch out the pavement, you are putting off the cost. you are accruing more interest. you cannot afford to run the business at this price. that is the bottom line. you have to cut the labor loss. >> nobody is talking about not funding the liability. melissa: they are talking about funding it at a lower percentage. they want to funded at 80% instead of 100%. >> the proposal that congress passed last year was simply to amortize the existing for 40 years. that would've saved a lot of money. there has been over payments of retirees, pension contributions. if that money were returned to the postal service, that would
help. melissa: that is a lot of hocus-pocus. we are out of time. we appreciate your time. thank you for coming on. >> you are welcome. melissa: another example of the online war underway. lou dobbs joins us coming up. lori: jcpenney doing away with virtually all sales coupons. look at what is working and what is not with jcpenney had. we will send you to break while checking the price of metals. we will be right back. the local
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points on the dow jones industrial average. disney on the move. once again another all-time high. it is up 1.1%. growth going forward. they talked about attendance that theme parks. how about ralph lauren. up about 7%. earnings up 28%. polo ralph lauren up at 176.73. lori: thank you. melissa: time to make a little money with charles payne. practical robots a reality. [talking over each other] melissa: follow me around, carry my food, answer my phone. lori: did you have an alfie robot that your kids played
with? charles: most of the people are known for stuff in their house. apparently it really does work. they beat the street by 200%. 189%. there is another part of the business that i really like. they have actually picked up the lineage. they have really picked up. they will do some things that will be big-time. i will ask you the three losses of robots. it may not injure humans or
humanity at all. the second is they must obey orders. the third is they must protect their own existence. [talking over each other] [ laughter ] melissa: we are having a whole tv flashback over here. charles: danger. that was the robot right there. melissa: i have nothing. lego robot mind store. we program robots in my house. timothy geithner to author. charlie gasparino reported it first. lori: our money under attack.
>> @22 minutes past the hour, i have your fox news minute. baltimore is home of the super bowl champions. city government -- they found a budget gap between $745,000,002,000,000 over the next few years. boy scouts of america officials announced that they will delay their decision on whether or not to lift the national band excluding gay leaders and members. they will take up the issue at the organizational national meeting in may.
they were considering giving local troops the power to decide whether to include gays. french led forces began airstrikes on january 11. that has driven al qaeda linked rebels out of cities. those are your headlines. back to alyssa. melissa: we love it. thank you so much. and internal fight was breached by hackers. they say it was a brief attack. there were not able to hurt the critical operations of the federal reserve. the fed is the latest target. why is this happeningg gerri: they announced very
clearly that there have been so many attacks at that point. they have the right to move forward as if it were an act of war. any attack against u.s. interests. now, it has become routine. we are getting a quarter of a million attacks against government facilities every day. we have a story like this today in which the federal reserve was hacked. presumably that a number of groups including anonymous. it should be very very disconcerting to all americans that we do not know who is caring out these attacks. we know, in general, that the people's republic of china carries out the largest number of attacks from mainland china against u.s. interests. mainland china and the peoples republic there. they managed to carry out, also
3500 front organizations in this country specifically to hack, acquire, steel, however you want to say it, military secrets. all of which have been the victims of cyber attacks. they say, well, nothing very much was, you know, taken from us. we do not know who did it. rest assured, it was a temporary problem and has since been fixed. it is repeated by the day. lori: do you think that these cyber attacks are escalating toward something bigger? to your point, you mentioned how the attacks happen every day, yet we are clueless to most of them. lou: we have to be very honest about this. all of our intel agencies, do they really presume that they
will be telling what the nature of the attack was? it may be for intelligence reasons that they are not saying who it is. we know, generally, that china is the source of most of them. we know, generally, that anonymous, this group protesting , as it has over the past years, they can carry out almost, it seems, any attack on any target that they want. particularly, in business. it should be troubling to everyone. we do not have the capacity to either stop it or shut down those who are perpetrating those attacks. melissa: we had somebody who was on about training folks to go into battle against it. we do not have enough engineers trained in this specific field in this country. lou: what is really peculiar about that, melissa, these
attacks have been going on for two decades. why don't we have people trained in the appropriate places? certainly, our banking system, the federal reserve, that is a very serious attack. they have the capacity, perhaps, to reach out to the entire banking system, the entire financial system. from wall street to the smallest community bank through the federal reserve system itself. deeply troubling. lori: we are vulnerable. melissa: lou dobbs, thank you very much. tonight you can catch congressman: who is a member of the house judiciary committee. lou: isn't it interesting. the president is asking congress to bail him out. he wasn't even going to negotiate with there last month.
we'll look at names on the move including home depot and lowe's. two names we continue to follow. home depot is trading up here. up with 1/10 of 1%. hiring more temporary workers for the spring selling season. that is busy time for these home retailers. some people plan to hire 80,000 temporary workers for the period. that is up from 70,000. loews is in the same boat. they will be hiring 9,000 permanent part time store associates. and that is, that is the theme. the theme is the spring selling season is coming. back to you. melissa: nicole, thanks so much. lori: it has been one year since jcpenney revamped into apple-like retail store under ceo ron johnson. with shares down 50% since then. is the strategy working? no. we have a senior analyst who covers jcpenney is here why he is downplaying the stock,
if the will succeed. love the most recent note on jcpenney. if we ran it we would be nervous. it was downgraded early january. do you feel similarly? >> i do. it was a whole dr. zeus theme in my defense. lori: it is great. we love it. >> i think the transition has been very tough. lori: what is the biggest challenge? what is the biggest miss by the ceo? >> i think the pricing strati if, consumers they haven't understood it. they're not responding postively to it. and i think that has been a real struggle. have been changes in the company's redirected it a little bit. they're adding become promotions. but i think the pricing strategy was maybe a little bit thought out. and certainly. poorly executed. lori: is it confusing for jc penny customers to know what the pricing strategy is and know whether items at full price or on sale? how are they labeling? that was a part of changeup in strategy. they would put the retail price and jcpenney price
under it similar to tj maxx. so many plans in the media, what is the takeaway for the customer? are they getting a firm message? seems like that is part of problem too, no? >> that is funny. i think the company was trying to simplify. they really wanted to simplify the pricing strategy. that is what all the move was , simplifying and more pricing integrity. but the consumer was really confused. they didn't know if they were getting value. there was nothing there very overt to suggest value. so the company has made some tweaks. they're now showing an msrp if you will, and they're also emphasizing in their marketing what similar products would cost elsewhere. they are trying to convey value, while simplifying the pricing and you know, i think it is still very much a work in progress. lori: what are the impressions when you go into jcpenney stores? do you like the clothing? are the items fashion forward. some of the other merchandise? >> my entire outfit is by jcpenney today. no it is not. but i do think the store
looks really good. it is a big improvement. it's lot cleaner. there is less clutter. some of the new products are flowing in. we've seen new floor sets just in february, some new brand there adding. some announcements on brands on the come. so i think they are making progress. it is just whether or not their customer will respond to these brands and these changes. they're trying to attract a new customer. they're trying to regain some of that share that they have lost over the last two decades. i think that's going to be a long process. but i personally think that the stores do look a lot better, a lot cleaner, better product. >> would you say the toughest challenges for penny are behind them now with that $22? what is your forecast, i suppose that is your forecast but when do you see it reaching that level and how far beyond it can it go? >> yeah, i mean i don't know if the toughest challenges are behind then. i think that, really they need to, in the near term, turn sales into positive
territory and, increasingly it sounds like that might not happen in the first quarter. right now i'm still forecasting it. if you listen to the company's body language, some of the presentations and reports we've seen from them, suggest it might take longer than the first quarter to see sales turn into positive territory. lori: do you expect a management shake-up. >> there is a lot of concern about the balance sheet as well. lori: do you expect a management shake-up? ceo ron johnson came in with such anticipation and optimism, formerly of apple of course? >> it still seems like he has the support of the board and i think that they have been very conscious all along that this transition would take at left a year. troops it has been a little more severe in terms of a downturn than they anticipated. it sound to me like he still has the support of the board. he will have a little bit more time to execute his strategy to see if it works. lori: liz dunne on jcpenney. thanks. melissa: a real page turner.
our own charlie gasparino tracking down former secretary treasurer geithner and new details on his book, tim geithner that is. lori: as we head to break the 10 and 30-year treasury notes. clients are always learning more to make their money do more. (ann) to help me plan my next move, i take scottrade's free, in-branch seminars... plus, their live webinars. i use daily market commentary to improve my strategy. and my local scottrade office guides my learning every step of the way. because they know i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) scottrade... ranked "highest in customer loyalty for brokerage and investment companies."
has reached a settlement with u.s. and british authorities and will pay $615 million in fines over interest rate rigging. rbs is the third global banking giant to agree to settle charges of tampering with libor rates. liberty global has struck a deal to buy virgin media for about $16 billion in cash and stock. the deal is aimed at helping liberty better compete with u.k. market leader bskyb which is owned by news corporation the parent company of this network. stay tuned to the 3:00 p.m. hour when liz claman has liberty global ceo and president on the "countdown to the closing bell". itunes set a new record with $25 billion songs sold. the man who downloaded the song received a $10,000 gift card. that is the latest from fox business, giving you the power to prosper
lori: fox business senior correspondent charlie gasparino told us first. melissa: of course. lori: now it is official. former treasury secretary timothy geithner planning to write a book. charlie here with details and a few possible titles. he is big fan of yours. >> i hate that sob. hate him, hate i am. melissa: that is not true. >> why do i hate the guy? he will get a lot more money on this one book, on than i got in all my books. that's one reason why i hate him. here's another one. rehe fused to answer any of my questions, i think two years ago where we, you know, i --. melissa: where is that. >> i did ambush him. downstairs. i knew he would meet with the journal. i am bushed him with a camera and we --. melissa: that is our lobby and chasing him through the lobby and gave you a shoulder and shoved you. lori: his lips are moving. >> can't comment on that. talking about the economy and into raising taxes. he did say he respects what i do. let's see now, timmy --.
melissa: very charming guy. i think so. >> well. melissa: no? >> whatever. anyway, but anyway, i hate you, tim geithner. i thought of some book titles. you should know my twitter book titles are a lot more --. melissa: racy. >> see gasparino twitter.com. they're pretty funny. lori: not family friendly. >> they are not x-rated but they're nasty. they reached out to ap say they're doing this i think we will get several million. melissa: oh, yeah, without question. >> here is my book titles. my love of a fair with larry fink. melissa: that's a good one. >> they're very close. who knows how close. melissa: how does larry feel about that. >> larry writes him too. larry will write a book, my love affair with tim geithner. what is it like to take orders from a community activist? not bad, huh.
melissa: that's a good one. >> a what i witnessed at socialist revolution. a little play on peggy noonan's book. how to screw up a perfectly good bailout. melissa: oh, come on. >> why i hate charlie gasparino. on my twitter page. sometimes brilliance comes lori: fleeting. >> 50 shades of vomit. lori: no way. >> yes. how do fool reporters that high unemployment is good and get your guy reelected. lori: charlie, one good thing geithner accomplished -- >> geithner, it was kind of masochistic his four years. melissa: i think he deserves millions for the book because he suffered a lot. >> it is s and m, right. melissa: i don't know? >> this is, more brilliance. s and m. he is the s, the american people are the m. melissa: oh. on that note, thank you, charlie gasparino. all right. lori: a lot of value there. >> transition to almost anything else. >> stock market is going up. melissa: the president is
expected to nominate ceo of outdoor company rei, sally jewel, to lead the department of the interior. two years ago jewel introduced president obama at a white house conference on america's great outdoor initiative. she noted $289 billion outdoor recreation industry is the source of 6.5 million jobs. she is being nominated to succeed ken salazar, who devoted much his tenure promoting renewable energy and public land and managing the 2010 gulf of mexico oil spill. a little background. she has a degree of mechanical engineering from the university of washington. she began her career as engineer for mobile oil. she began her career as commercial banker. i thought that was interesting. she is married with two children. the president is expected to make the nomination at top of the hour. lori: i can't believe she is leaving rei. they make cool stuff. >> they do books? lori: books? no.
melissa: it is quarter to. as we do every 15 minutes, let's check the markets. nicole petallides is on the floor of the new york stock exchange, watching names that report after the bell today, nicole. >> no book titles here right now. let's talk about earnings, earnings, earnings. it is the season and we watched these names so closely today, after the bell. in the 4:00 p.m. hour, keep an eye on these names between now and the closing bell. so we're looking attest sorrow corporation. this is a name in exploration and production, oil energy, exploration production. a 52-week high on that one. green mountain coffee roasters, obviously a name that has had a lot of volatility, a name traded as high as $71 and as low as $17 in the last year. iac interactive, prudential, news corp, the parent of the fox business network, it is under a little pressure right now. keep an eye on the names between now and the closing bell. back to you. melissa: thanks so much. keep it right here for complete earnings coverage on "after the bell" with liz claman and david asman
at 4:00 p.m. eastern. lori: how about this? college students take note. for those majoring in business and expecting to have the highest paying salary when you graduate, think again. according to a new survey by the national association of colleges and employers, students graduating with degrees in engineering are now earning more than in any other majors, including business the engineering majors typically earn about $62,000 as compared to nearly $54,000 salary miss majors rake in. the survey also found that not only is the major important but the university itself. with an employment rate of over 13% for people ages 18 to 29 shows both major and college choices are becoming increasingly more important. we saw with miss joule, she had a background in banking engineering and a whole host of things. melissa: definitely changes what fields everybody is looking at engineering computer science. >> and how much you want to spend on the college degree. melissa: that's right. lori: it may be a case of
the pot calling the kettle black. struggling hewlett-packard firing back after dell's deal to go private but hp may face major changes of its own. we'll have details. are you feeling little less social? melissa: you're not alone. a number about users taking a break from facebook and why next. ♪ . all stations come over to mission a for a final go. this is for real this time. step seven point two one two. rify and lock. command is locked. five seconds. three, two, one. standing by for capture. the most innovative software on the planet...
we have our reporters spread out across the country. we've got experts how they see this recovery shaping up. check it out. tune in friday. lori: so it's the real, real estate story. the real story. also in technology today hewlett-packard has gotten into the business of unsolicited opinions this week saying dell's transition to go private, will quote, not be good for its customers but could hp have its own transition plan ahead? shibani joshi has the story. >> this is a busy week for the pc industry is an understatement. obviously we had dell and its privatization news come out. yesterday there were fresh reports of rumors that the company, hewlett-packard, may be getting rid of its core business. some critical questions ahead for the overall pc industry. in fact, as i wrote in a note about the dell transaction, that quote, we view the privatization as another sign of the fading importance of the pc industry. now is it too early to call the death of the pc industry? i think so but it's clear
they're very much in a transition phase. i spoke to somebody very close to the hp, very close to the company and they told me the following. that the company does want to keep its core business. that meg whitman, the ceo of hp, has said as much. so they really making light of this news but it is very, very clear what happens next over the next few months, the next few years is really going to drive what happens to the pc industry. everyone that is attached to it. you think about microsoft. you think about intel, software-makers, adobe, the chip-makers, nvidia. there are billions at stake here that are going to figure out what they're going to do based on the road map that gets planted this year. lori: ripple effects yeah. hang out with us for a moment of the we want to get your take here. melissa: so is facebook wearing you out? according to a survey from the pew research center the answer is probably yes. the research suggests that facebook fatigue may be a real thing. 61% of the facebook users, 61% have taken a brake from
the social network for several weeks or longer. users gave a variety of reason for taking a break from the site. 21% said they were too busy with their real life. sounds like good news to me. many find themselves taking a hiatus from facebook, 69% of those surveyed say they plan to spend just as much time on the site in 2013 as they did in 2012. lori: taking a break mean you can go to other social media sites? internet dating. melissa: yeah, we're on a break. >> see other people. melissa: what you do think about this? i invest a lot more time in twitter. >> i'm the same. melissa: so time invase i have is. lori: it is boring. if i cop plain about what is happening or getting a cold or sniffle or eating for lunch, it can really be mundane. people term it facebook fatigue and a real word and a term not only everyone feels but facebook is really,
really worried about. it was one of the core statistic that facebook and investors look for in their quarterly report is this engage hadn't -- enwill not help the company. >> not so much. interesting. lori: so finally this afternoon, speaking of games and playing them online, what about the classic game of monopoly? broadway, park place, pennsylvania avenue. you know the names and you visited them on the monopoly board. well now a new option in the piece you choose to play with. monopoly set up a contest to retire one of the old pieces or tokens. melissa: the iron, i love it. lori: say good-bye to the iron. fans from one 120 countries voted on these options, a robot, diamond ring, cat, helicopter, guitar. the winner, i would have voted for the diamond. what about you? melissa: i love the diamond but i thought the robot was so cool. lori: that is the theme. hour, the robot. the winner was the cat.
the idea came from the niece of the game's creator who suggested using charms from her charm bracelet. way to get the classic game. melissa: all the new pieces were good. the guitar was kind of lame. helicopter was late. so many new pieces and --. lori: old ones are classics. melissa: don't use more than one. the cat? lori: so many versions of monopoly. is it milton practicedly? so smart how they reinvented and go too game. melissa: lori will stay in and play monopoly. lori: i could play for hours and hours and hours. melissa: many could up tonight on "money", marcia blackburn discusses the house budget committee and why president obama is having a hard time getting his budget in on time. he missed it again. that is 5:00 p.m. eastern here on fox business. lori: with more trading hours to go, more tax hikes and rising energy prices could stall progress for the economy in the future. so says permabear economist, david rosenberg.
♪ it's not rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. ashley: it is 2:00. good afternoon, everybody, i'm ashley webster. tracy: i'm tracy byrnes. stocks zigzag again today following big swings the past two days. what the heck is the market's next move? ameriprise's david joy shares his big money strategy in moments. ashley: that is joy. so long, saturday mail. the pose off the is cutting back on service in hopes of saving itself but will it deliver? that story ahead. tracy: a billion dollar budget hangover for the city still celebrating its super bowl win. is baltimore about to go bankrupt? we'll have those scary numbers next. ashley: that is great news, isn't it. first top of the hour. time for stocks the dow is off some 34 points. nothing too drastic. nicole petallides on the floor of the nyse. nicole, stocks basically
taking a breather. >> taking a breather here, down 34 points. don't forget we've had three very busy days on wall street with triple digit moves on all three of those days. today we've gotten close to 14,000 but didn't quite break through there. we're down one quarter of 1%. we've seen three averages that i keep an eye on, the retail index, the drug index and the bank index have all turned into the red. so market breadth, really not good news here. it has not improved at all. i want to take a look at some names here on the dow. we haven't gotten economic news. there are worries about europe again. we've had a strong dollar. that is something that weighs on us but we have names hitting new highs. we have three dow components the one is disney. which is is at all-time high again. now it is up 1%. the great quarter. great outlook for future films. they have a nice pipeline of films. they talk about growing attendance at the theme parks that are expected. there is a look at time warner, up 4 1/2%, raising its quarterly dividend. a new $4 billion buyback
program. the beat the street on estimates and the profit. did beat on revenue but good news overall for them. ashley: happy's place on earth maybe. nicole, thanks so much. tracy: the market has been on a tear this year. the s&p 500 is up more than 5% and our first guest manages nearly $700 billion and he says those budget talks are heating up in washington, yeah. they could curb this momentum. joining us david joy, chief market strategist for ameriprise financial. not spreading so much joy today, are you. so you're worried about these budget talks, huh? >> well, i am a little bit at least in the near term only in the sense it looking increasingly though there will be a stalemate rather than a compromise which could trigger the sequestered cuts. that will trim some economic momentum we have. that combined with the fact we're struggling to get beyond the 14,000 level on the dow. we're struggling to get much
beyond 1500 on the s&p suggests to me we're due for a pullback and this will be the cat lit. tracy: a lot of people i think hoping one day we can take washington out of our market research but it's not looking that way, is it? here we are again, washington determining where the market is going. >> yeah, that's absolutely right. i think, although the mindset is changing a little bit. i think previous to this, there was always the expectation that there was going to be some definitive conclusion to these budget talks and long-term deficit reduction. now i think the mindset is change to accommodation and expectation we'll go from one political crisis next. tracy: right. >> this will be a cronic state of affairs. tracy: right. >> we'll just have to live with it. tracy: for those of us studied fundamental analysis you can pretty much throw that out of the window but you do manage $700 billion so let's talk about where you're putting some of that
money these days and the sectors you like, the industrials, the financials and energy, all kind of lead me to believe that's a positive sign for the economy, right? >> it is. i think we're in the early stages of a cyclical upturn. it's happening in the united states. it's happening in china. you saw some decent news coming even out of germany today. i think that's the direction we're headed. i think global gdp is probably going to struggle this year overall but we turn ad corner i think. now that suggests that some of these cyclical issues should take over the leadership of the market. doesn't mean that you should turn your back on dividen dividend-paying stocks, the defensive categories. they will still be okay. i think the growth leaders will be the cyclical sectors. tracy: it is nice to hear financials coming back more and more, people talking about them. do you think they cleaned up finally from the financial crisis or are you picking certain banks in particular? >> no, i think by and large the banking system especially in the u.s. is
much healthier. capital levels have been restored. in terms of general economic activity, loan demand, asset prices rising generating a good revenue i think the financials in general look pretty good here even though they have had a nice run. tracy: and energy as well. we've been hearing more and more about this energy boom coming to the united states. is it natural gas? what part of the sector are you playing here? >> well, i think there are two themes here. one is just if the world is in the early stages of a cyclical upturn you will see more demand for up tiles of energy including oil. but in the u.s. i think this natural gas renaissance is an important long-term theme. i wouldn't play it by generating sensitivity to the commodity but rather the infrastructure that is going to be needed to build out in order to get this gas to the marketplace. that is going to happen and it will take several years to play out. tracy: it's great stuff. david joy, we're so glad you were with us.
we are loving the background, wherever the heck you are. >> miami. tracy: that would be miami. my favorite place on earth. ashley: no snow down there. but neither snow nor rain will stop the u.s. mail, right? well, don't look for any letters in your mail box on saturdays. starting in august the post office is announcing it is cutting first class delivery only monday through friday. the move it says could save it billions. rich edson on the story in washington. rich? >> this as the boss steal service -- postal service waits on con gruss on restructuring proposals. but they did this anyway. they lost $16 billion last fiscal year. this is what they have in store for saturday mail, mainly no letter delivery. post offices will stay open and letter and package delivery will continue. that the post office says will save them $2 billion. total mail volume was 200 billion annually. it has now dipped below 170
billion. the post office says that drop in volume is killing its business. >> when you lose the first class volume that we've seen, you can't make the ends meet from a financial standpoint. the choice is either change some of the service or raise prices and people don't want prices raised. we'll make the changes in service. >> reporter: letter carrier union doesn't like it. here is a statement from the president. the postmaster general patrick donahoe's plan to end sat did i delivery is disasterous idea that would have a profund effect on the postal service and millions of customers. it would be particularly harmful to small businesses, rural communities, elderly and disabled and others that depend on saturday delivery for commerce and communication. the postal service did have a $15 billion line with treasury, a line of credit. they have exceeded that. back to you. ashley: yeah, they're losing $36 million a day. so they have to do something. rich edson, thanks so much. tracy: my birthday might fall on a saturday in august. that means i won't get any
it about day cards. ashley: get them out early. tracy: or e-mail. i'll take it. tim geithner's next move the former treasury secretary has a new job and other big plans for the future. we'll have details next. ashley: plus not sold on the housing recovery. permabear economist david rosenberg says housing is still depressed. and that is not all he is worried about. he is a bear after all and he is our special guest. as we do every day at this time let's look how oil is trading, well, in step with the dow, just down slightly at $96.29 a barrel.
pride for the blackberry. tracy: -- breaker in canada. i don't know. time to make a little money with charles payne. he is revisiting a stock he recommended back in december. it was actually one of my personal favorites the i use it. >> you use it. got to tell you. i thought about you immediately. shutterfly. december 20th we talked about it. up 37%. ashley: wow. tracy: i owned it and stopped purchasing from it. >> you don't have to stop purchasing. this is what i wanted to talk about. so many people i'm afraid of the market. i don't know where to start. i say, listen if there is something that you love, in this case you loved that particular product. tracy: right. >> if you use it over and over again. we have a tendency to like something put it away. for us it was the soda stream machine. we loved it, when we loved it the stock went up. we stopped using it and stock went down. came out with new flavors like lemonade. started using it and sta
stock went up. if you tell three family members you became unspade spokesperson. you don't get any commission. you tell friends how great the product is, you don't want to own the stock. here is another tidbit. doesn't have to be new. general mills is now trading at an all-time high. if you bought bought the stock in 91988, you would be 1000%. think of how many people eat cheerios. ashley: that is outrageous. tracy: cereal is so expensive. >> the same people that eat cereal and fret over the idea where will i get money from, where do i invest, you know it is not sexy. up 1,000%. tracy: shutterfly bought a couple little companies that i don't know the names of. >> right. tracy: they made all these fancier christmas cards this year. cards that i can't afford to make. i got hundreds of them. >> did you really? ironic. i would take profits on shutterfly. anyone who might have bought it that day. don't be afraid the market.
it is not buying one stock at a time. start with your own life. start with your own life. you're making everybody else rich. it is nuts. time to make yourself money. tracy: peter lynch. >> there you go. tracy: now charles payne style. >> see you guys later. next time you love something, tracy, let me know first. ashley: pile into that stock. charles, thank you. look, less than two weeks after leaving the administration, former treasury secretary jack lew already has a new job. -- tim geithner. joining the council on foreign relations as a distinguish distinguished fellow. it is not the first time he was there. he was senior fellow in 2001. those are not his only plans, after weeks of speculation, geithner will write a book on his response to the financial crisis. he was the president of the new york fed before joining the obama administration. so will be interesting to see what that might reveal. who said what and, you're laughing. >> you know, i'm not necessarily a big geithner fan but i think the bit will be a good seller.
ashley: yeah. just out of interest. >> as long as he doesn't write anything, you know books on how to prepare your taxes. ashley: ouch. >> that would be a pamphlet really. ashley: on a postage stamp. >> i'm jealous the guy is making more money than me. ashley: of course. thank you, charles. >> see you later. tracy: it is quarter past. speaking of money we have to check on the markets. nicole petallides on the floor of the stock exchange. you're looking at some movers in the videogame sector, right? >> that's right. money, money. video fame is a big money making sector. it is intense competition. look at gamestop right now which is down 6 1/2%. sometimes great hardware, great games boost these stocks but in this case, gamestop is under pressure because xbox will launch a new xbox that requires internet. when people are using xbox with the internet they will get online games and not necessarily want to hit gamestop to go buy games that you buy and put them in your hand and take them home. that does not bode well for
a name like game stock. look at take-two interactive which has done so well with grand theft auto. the next one they are getting ready to launch that. that up 13% surging on its quarterly results. they have a great bass call game that has been successful. they announced a share buyback program. they raised the low end of the full-year forecast. that helped them as well. back to you. tracy: thank you, nicole. we'll see you in 15 minutes. coming up one economist says don't believe the hype about this rebouncing economy. david rosenberg says we're really on the verge of recession. find out why. ashley: why he is a permabear. first let's take a look how the dollar is moving right now. a mixed bag although the euro is giving back some gains against the dollar. trading 1.35. the pound has been weak weak, slightly higher. we'll be right back. ♪
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rei in two five. the company, recreational equipment, inc., is known for its outdoor conservation efforts. the boy scouts of america will announce a delay whether to lift a national ban excluding gay leaders and members. they will take up the issue at the national meeting in may. scout leaders were considering giving local troops the power whether to decide to include gays. in georgia a fiery highway crash killed three and injured nine. two dozen vehicles collided in four separate chain-reaction accidents. seven commercials vehicles were involved including an empty petroleum tanker truck that ruptured and caught fire. the accident occurred 40 miles from may con, georgia. back to tracy. tracy: a threat neville. thank you very much. scary stuff. ashley: right. tracy: it has been a wild day for the oil market. clawing its way back from the sharp losses in the session. sandra smith with details in today's trade. >> crude trying to claw its
way into positive territory with a few minutes left to go in the open pit session. it is still in negative territory. the report from the eia today was very bearish. it still shows that we're not using as much gasoline as we were a year ago. the amount of inventory build we saw there was bigger than expected, as well as crude oil supplies. if you look at rbob gasoline prices they're about unchanged on the session but have been very volatile. what is going on you have a very bearish report out from the government. meaning the economy is still bad. we're using less oil and gasoline but prices are still going up. if you look at a year-to-date chart, oil prices have been one of the best investments this year. oil is up 5%. rbob gasoline comparatively has gone up 7%. both of these commodities are skyrocketing based on a couple things. the energy management institute said after that report this morning geopolitics are providing a price floor for these energy products. also by the way you have got
the fed printing money, devaluing the u.s. dollar the tracy and ashley, that continues to be a boost for a lot of these commodity prices. very bearish report energizewise but look at that. oil and gasoline trying to work their way into positive territory with a few minutes left to go. back to you. ashley: thank you, sandra. rising fuel costs just one of the many things my next guest says is putting pressure on u.s. consumers and he is not convinced we're seeing an economic rebound. joining me now, david rose ben -- rosenberg chief economist and strategist. david, thanks so much for joining us. listen, you have used the analogy of the u.s. economy as like a drunk driver, lurching from side to side, thankfully missing the ditch but don't you think the economy is sobering up to use that analogy a little bit? yes, it is slow and steady but at least it is heading in the right direction. >> well the direction certainly is up but the trend is slowing down and,
you know, what i find amusing, is how so many people will look and see what the stock market is doing at any given point in time and then make up their mind, well the economy must be in a boom-like mode because we had a ripping i can qet market in january -- equity market in january. gdp was 1.%. we know there are a lot of special factors headlining that gdp but the same factors skewed the number to the upside in the third quarter and we had 3%. what i find interesting is that nobody talked about the fact that the 3% quarter in the third quarter was skewed by special factors, oh, oh, oh, but the fourth quarter, negative .1 we'll disregard because of special factors. you want to average out the two quarters. what you're talking about is a 1 1/2% growth economy. does that have a plus sign in front of it? i guess the answer is yes and that is the cup is half full but the economy is slowing down because in the previous four quarters we
were averaging 2%. now the underlying trend of gdp is 1 1/2%. in the new normal that's a huge positive. i remember when i started in the business in 1980s you were starting to average 1 1/2% growth in gdp people were starting to ask me are we headed to recession? today it is almost like economic any vaughn n the economy is on very soft ground, full stop. that is exactly why the fed continues to expand its balance sheet as much as it is doing. that is why it is keeping interest rates close to zero for the foreseeable future. if the economy was not on shaky ground the fed wouldn't be doing what it is doing right now. ashley: the market has been in this amazing bull run for some years now. what are you telling investors? to get the heck out? >> no, not at all. we've actually over the past year been gradually increasing our equity allocation. against any benchmark we're underweight. we're 48% of our asset mix. 48% in equities. but largely in income equity,
dividend growth, dividend yield, dividend coverage. more or less, insofar you could ever talk about safe equities, low cyclicality, low beta, that's what we're in. we've been raising our equity allocation but doing it very judiciously at the same time. ashley: what about the bond market, david. do you agree with those that say it's in a bubble? >> i don't think the bond market in aggregate is in a bubble. i think you can point to certainly some segments of the reit market that looks expensive. certainly the high yield market is trading at levels above par that puts it in callable risk situation. high yield is actually cheapened up quite a bit over the course of the past couple weeks. but i think investment grade, high quality corporate bond, they might provide a low yield but i would still say in a portfolio, what they do offer is the offer us stability and diversification. so i don't think that the bond market in general is in a bubble but there are certainly some segments that are certainly overly
expensive right now. i wouldn't argue with that. ashley: we're already out of time. david rosenberg, thank you so much. thank you so much for joining us. we appreciate it. >> thank you. tracy: if he doesn't think we're in a bond bubble. ashley: he doesn't. he also thinks the economy is just this far ahead of, slip back into recession. tracy: and there's that. all right. we have on deck a dire fiscal warning from a ceo. the liz macdonald has those answer next. ashley: plus are bank robbers going the way of elevator operators and typewriter repairmen? we'll tell tell you about a stunning drop in one of america's oldest crimes. can you believe it? first a look at some of today's winners and losers. we have winners on the s&p. we'll be right back. all stations come over t mission a for a final go.
♪ ashley: look at the dow 33, kind of a mixed bag. 3m, walt disney, boeing stock gaining a little bit even as the dream liner is not, but on the downside, intel losing, exxon mobile also. let's go to the floor of the new york stock exchange with nicole petallides standing by. >> reporter: that's right. what do you think? what do you think? we're not at 14,000, but not too far off. >> i think the market is great, earnings are great. a little disconcerting, what happened on monday with the negative news. it is like a broken record. i mean, we have already hit
bottom. >> reporter: the facts are in europe, one bad headline other european markets all the. that is disconcerting to you that have lines of market-moving events. >> well, we see these momentum knee-jerk reactions. you can add this of the overall tenor which is an upper vibe. right now the market is pushing to hire. >> reporter: take up the all-time highs easily this year? >> i don't think he will be easy. we will have a pullback. eventually we will. >> reporter: what will help us? >> continued earnings. tracy: >> reporter: he said that earnings are looking great. tracy: of right. they certainly know their way air route that floor. ashley: thank you, guys. tracy: new federal deficit forecast as washington and boston, but not wall street. market continuing. and liz macdonald here with the numbers and why they are seemingly ignored. e-mad, come on with these agencies. >> look at that, the deficit
will drop to 8,605,000,000,000. that is going to sink below a trillion. st. louis federal reserve. tracy: was that a rhetorical question? >> that reaction. [laughter] >> anyway. but i get excited about this stuff. so here's the deal. the federal reserve and pepperdine looking at prior cbo forecasts of debt spending, and look at this. this is how much of the cbo was often prior year deficit forecast from 2002-2011. there were off by almost 12 trillion. the justice wing in the mess, little one. they said of that time in 2002. the u.s. would be in the black by over five and a 6 trillion. it was in the red by eight over 6 trillion. and it also says that these analysts, the st. louis federal
reserve are saying, watch the gdp growth projected back in 2011. u.s. gdp would be just under three and a half. 2013, the forecast, now wait is just under one and half. so the issue is routinely this cbo gets it wrong. the problem is, cbo numbers underpin tax and regulatory policy. such shaky numbers, and the big problem, it is hamstrung and by law has to look at these d.c. policies as if they're going to be in place year after year after year. in other words got they cannot predict the economy, but they're trying to predict the economy based upon this static models. cannot predict what d.c. policymakers are going to do or fed reserve officials. the reality check looks like it has massive cbo, but we do publish an alternate this scenario that you can look at. ashley: the real one. >> by the way, they also said
that unemployment this year would be apt eight north of seven and a half. so i'm saying, wait a second. watch these numbers. we should not taken part so much. look behind the numbers for what actually happens. tracy: as my kids, and you will get better numbers out of them. [laughter] tracy: what do i know. ashley: coming up, the changing threat to u.s. banks. how financial institutions are adapting to drop in bank robberies and a rise. tracy: no more bonnie and clyde. first as we do every day at this time of day let's check on that tent and 30-year treasurys. both off. we will be right back. ♪ what's next?
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♪ tracy: breaking news for you know, an update on new plants that the post office to cut saturday's service. the national association of letter carriers putting out a statement blasting the move. the postmaster general is dubiously claiming a loophole in a law which will allow him to do this. the union is exploring all legal and political options to block dominos gambit. if he were allowed to get away with this brazen attempt to override a lot and the will of congress he would be free to go to a four day or even three
delivery in the future. the postal union not happy with this no-saturday delivery, but the fact remains, they are bleeding, hemorrhaging money every day. tracy: rather have a job five days a week than none. i don't know, call me crazy. here is a job that is going away . the masked robber. the image holding up the bank at gunpoint seems like an outdated notion because it is becoming one. bank robberies are at a decade low. good news for a change, but that does not mean bank fraud is going away. joining us now, vice-president of risk for the american bankers association. why are bank robberies going down? to meet recession people are desperate and i would think that there would be up. >> yes, i think that is an assumption that allow the people make because they think that the bank robberies are related to economic activity, and there really are not, frankly. there has been a lot of studies which demonstrate that it has less to do with the desperation
associated with economics than it would be someone who has a level of mental instability or has a drug problem or something of that nature. so it was more of a crime of, i know what to call it a crime of passion, but it is more -- not necessarily a crime but associated with economic activity. tracy: it is interesting because we grew up with willie sutton, bonnie and clyde. my children do not know who they are, but they know that my brother, their uncles atm account was attacked recently. is the money still being stolen, just in a different way? >> yes, we have seen, as you ascribed, bank robberies are declining. check fraud is actually flags. but electronic crimes are obviously increasing because the percentage of economic activity which it has taken place electronically is increasing so much. yes, the threat has shifted and
we are obviously in our industry recognizing that is the case, and so we take a lot of different additional measures to try to ensure that the server security environment is secure. tracy: is this the same guy? forgive me. his see the same guy that can -- that is smart enough to have my atm machine? >> no, these are two different types of characters altogether. as we talked about earlier, the bank robbers, a very low-tech crime, very instantaneous crime that might have a lot of planning associated with it. there may do some surveillance of the location, byron lars that is not in the case. this is completely separate from a cyber carol has a lot of elaborate things that they may have to do of a sophisticated nature on the front and before they actually compass the crime. tracy: talking about this a lot. how do you protect yourself? it seems that it is simple or
easier than i can think to get into my atm account these days. >> i think that you read -- need to recognize the security really on the cyber side is a partnership between you and your bank, which is completely different than what you're talking about with a bank robbery. obviously yawner responsibility to try to protect the bank or responsibility to protect yourself. but i think when you're talking about cyber security, you, as a customer, the first line of defense a lot of time, the first person to see an unauthorized transaction error count, and when you do so, please notify your financial institution so that they can reimburse you for that loss because that is what they will do to the extent there is an unauthorized transaction. you can have more sophisticated passwords than mother's maiden name. you can change their passwords substantially and keep your anti-viral software and today. you can not click on link to view know are coming from
someone you don't know, that kind of thing. a lot of things the u.s. an individual can do. tracy: vice-president of risk. scary. in my brother has this thing and is found that if anyone which draws more than $100 to get similar. ashley: that's great. tracy: at smart. ashley: otherwise they will drain that account. it is a quarter till, time for stocks as we do every 15 minutes. let's head back down to nicole petallides at the new york stock exchange with some names getting ready to report earnings. >> reporter: that is right. earnings season, and we see volatility, heavy volume on some of these stocks. a couple of names we will keep a close eye on the, the sec and green mountain coffee roasters. let's make it down here a little bit. green mountain higher by about 2 percent going into the close. we will see how starbucks and the competition fares. did not do so well for starbucks in particular, but let's take a
look. now over one year or so ago. over this one year it takes $71 change, $17, so it shows you what a -- don't forget that some of the big guys shorten as well, and we will take a look at the credit-card company that is expected to report earnings of the dollar 79 per share. this is obviously a largest credit-card network in the world with revenue expected to be almost 3 billion. so obviously a rival to mastercard. visa is flat, very much a wait and see for these members. back to you. ashley: thank you very much. keep it here on fox business for full coverage of green mountain and visa earnings at 4:00 p.m. eastern time right here on fox business network. well, is yours your fix about to cost you more doe? coming up next, one candy maker reacts to a bullish call on one of its biggest product. tracy: the stocks down about 20
can you hear me? >> yes, i can. ashley: excellent of rigidities with commodities. where are those opportunities? what you like? >> well, we like gold. we think long-term prices will continue to climb. as you know, gold has increased 12 consecutive years. it was up about five and a half% last year. interestingly, the gold companies did not fare well the last two years. the large capitol companies to my according to an index, declined about 12-13%. the small gold companies declined 22% last year. we believe that the gold companies will rebound over the next couple of years. we think it is a good place to be invested. that is one of the areas that we like. we also like oil. we think oil prices will remain very high. it makes it profitable for companies that are focused more on oil than natural gas demand
we also like uranium and copper. ashley: why uranium? somewhat unusual. somewhat of a factor in the commodities and also overlooked. >> at the career going to hear a lot more about the demand for uranium. after fukushima, the uranium companies lost more than 50 percent of their value across the board. since that time it is apparent now that more than 40 nuclear reactors are being constructed around the world and supplies are not keeping pace. in addition, your audience may be interested in knowing that the united states has the most nuclear reactors of any country in the world, 104. although one announced today that they were shutting down a reactor. we still have the most in the world, and our reactors and dow utilities get 45 percent of their uranium from the decommissioning of rapid -- russian weapons systems. we believe -- and that treaty is
going to expire at the end of this year. we believe that uranium prices will decline and that companies that are in production like you ec, you argy that it into production this summer will of perform well over the next few years. ashley: what about silver and platinum? silver is basically doubled in the past two years, platinum up 63%. do you like those? >> yes, we do. platinum has risen brother because of the problems of south africa which produces more than 90 percent of the world's platinum, believe it. in the case of silver, a lot more industrial applications in gold. we like silver. in the fund we have significant exposure to silver. we think this over companies will do particularly well. silver, lead, and sl w is one of the companies have been particularly like.
it is a royalty company. they get a percentage of the silver and now some cold from the company's that they invest in. ashley: quickly, what i found interesting is you prefer the up side of the companies rather than the commodity itself. what is the key thing you look for when you consider a company? >> i very get point in question. as i mentioned, the last couple of years gold companies have underperformed commodities. over time there will catch up, and the companies give you more exposure to gold. if you believe prices are going up because of all the factors about the country's and the roar of their printing money, the devaluation of currency, the concerns about wars and you think gold is going up, the companies are better way to play or the next couple of years. looking for those companies one very important factor that i think investors overlooked is the cast of the companies have or the access to lazy money. it is essential that these
companies continue to have money to fund their development and that killing, and when they run out of money they delete the shareholders. a terrible event for shareholders, so in analyzing companies look for companies that have very get resources and have access to capital. ashley: lots of great information. thanks you so much for joining us. >> a pleasure to be with you. tracy: sugar prices may be hovering around 2-year lows, but what an upcoming shifting gasoline prices that could all change. what does it mean for the industries that rely on sugar? jeff flock at the world's finest chocolate factory with a shower cap on. >> reporter: i don't care that i look foolish, and nor does any other. you probably know because your kids have likely sold these dollar bars, a big fund-raiser.
how many bars. >> 200 million per year. >> 200 million. how many kids? >> 4 million kids. >> reporter: this is where you make them all, and as you might guess, the number one input costs cosher. 50 percent of your input cost. >> by weight, yes. >> reporter: take a look at the chart. a lot has come out of this. all-time highs or near. sugar at 2-year lows, probably get for you. >> it does help us out. it is about time. come off of pretty significant ties. >> reporter: here is what is happening in brazil which is a huge producer of silver, engaging in what we here in the u.s. called food verses fuel prices. here in the u.s. it has been corn-based ethanol, but the brazilians it is sugar. that is going to drive it out. >> the brand like that, which could be huge. tracy: i want to leave you with
a chart of ethanol production in brazil, on the way up, mandating more sugar based ethanol, and that, analysts say, could drive share prices up with an 15% in the next two weeks. not great news, but they're watching. tracy: the biggest news story of the day. ashley: all right. it looks like the party, by the way, is over in baltimore three days after the baltimore ravens when the super bowl. the city government admits it is going broke. reporting the baltimore is headed for a $2 billion budget shortfall of the the next ten years, lazar thanks to decaying infrastructure, rising retiree health care costs and a massive exodus of taxpaying population. baltimore population has dropped from nearly 1 million in 1950 to 619,000 today. tracy: palmer.
the dow is down 19 points, so don't go anywhere. the last hour of trading is coming up with this trend to have liz claman. as ceo of liberty global talking about a monster deal. dissing of 16 billion to virgin media. don't go anywhere. ♪ >> announcer: you never know when, but thieves can steal your identity and turn your life upside down. >> hi. >> hi.
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